Unconstrained AI development, a move from globalization towards zero-sum thinking, and increased international tail risks are identified as the three major forces likely to shape economic and geopolitical outcomes in the coming years. These factors create potential for both positive developments and unexpected challenges.

<p>Three major factors are likely to shape economic and geopolitical outcomes over the next several years: politically unconstrained AI development, a shift from the logic of globalization to zero-sum thinking, and heightened international tail risks. Much could go right, or at least as expected—until it doesn’t.</p>