Despite recent pledges from the US and China to stabilize relations and establish new trade councils, historical tensions suggest significant improvements in bilateral economic ties are unlikely in the near future.

At last week’s summit in Beijing, the presidents of China and the United States pledged to steer towards a stable and constructive relationship. The two sides announced new joint trade and investment councils. This combination of high-level commitment and institutional progress has stirred hopes that long-running bilateral economic tensions will ease substantially, if not take a turn for the better. But will the world’s largest economies live happily ever after? History offers a sobering...