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news Scmp World 2026-04-15

Analysts Doubt Iran War Will Trigger Chinese Stimulus, Predict Solid Q1 Growth

Amid escalating tensions over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, analysts suggest that the US-Israeli conflict is unlikely to prompt immediate stimulus measures from China. The world's second-largest economy is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach, maintaining steady first-quarter GDP growth.


The US-Israeli war on Iran and the current Iranian and American blockades of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to overshadow China’s first-quarter economic performance, analysts said, with questions looming large about how the world’s second-largest economy will handle their impact. Many observers said they expect the leadership in Beijing will adopt a wait-and-see approach, with little likelihood of an immediate stimulus to guarantee the country’s annual economic target is...

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