Geopolitical disruptions, such as partial closures of key shipping chokepoints, are raising energy prices and predicting subsequent increases in global grocery costs.

The first tankers that turned away from the Strait of Hormuz did not just redraw shipping maps. They redrew grocery lists, too. After Iran’s partial closure of the strait disrupted a chokepoint that carries roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil, traders priced in something they know too well: war is not only about missiles; it’s about the bill that lands on kitchen tables months later. Brent crude climbing back above US$100 a barrel, and touching roughly US$120 on the worst days, is already...