The Iran war has increased security risks for oil-dependent countries, prompting a shift towards renewable energy. China is expected to benefit significantly from this shift, with its exports likely to offset losses from higher oil prices.

The Iran war’s oil shock has dramatically increased the security risk for oil-dependent countries, incentivising a turn towards renewable energy. This impact will outlast the war and oil price spikes because the world knows this war will recur. China will be the biggest beneficiary and its exports are likely to do very well this year, offsetting losses from buying higher-priced oil. A fifth of the global supply of oil and liquefied natural gas plus a third of seaborne fertilisers traditionally.....